Only a handful of races into 2026, Formula 1 has already delivered several unexpected storylines and surprises. From breakout performances to disappointing projects, the opening phase of the season has reshaped expectations across the paddock.
1. Kimi Antonelli Leading the Championship
The biggest surprise of the season so far is undoubtedly Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Many expected George Russell to comfortably establish himself as Mercedes’ lead driver. Instead, Antonelli has emerged as the early championship leader after taking three consecutive victories in Japan, China, Miami and Canada.
The Italian teenager has continued his remarkable rise by becoming the first driver in Formula 1 history to win his opening four Grands Prix consecutively, underlining just how extraordinary his start has been. The raw pace was always obvious, though his composure and consistency have elevated him to another level entirely. In the process, he also secured Mercedes’ 300th podium since the manufacturer returned to Formula 1 as a full works team in 2010.
Of course, the season remains very long, and experience often becomes decisive in championship battles. Russell still holds a significant advantage in that area. Even so, Antonelli’s rise has exceeded almost every expectation.
2. Red Bull-Ford’s Immediate Competitiveness
New power unit projects usually require time before becoming fully competitive. Red Bull Ford Powertrains appears to have skipped that phase entirely. The new engine package has quietly impressed throughout the paddock, particularly with its electrical systems and straight-line performance.
Considering the scale and complexity of the project, the immediate competitiveness of the package has surprised even some inside Formula 1.
3. Haas and Alpine Emerging as Midfield Leaders
Before the pre-season testing very few predicted Haas and Alpine would begin 2026 fighting near the front of the midfield. Alpine’s decision to shift focus early toward the new regulations has paid off impressively, with Pierre Gasly once again proving himself one of Formula 1’s most reliable performers. Meanwhile, Haas continues to maximise its resources under Ayao Komatsu’s leadership, with Oliver Bearman emerging as one of the standout performers of the opening phase of the season.
Both teams have quickly established themselves as genuine midfield contenders rather than occasional points scorers.
4. Williams Falling Backward
Williams entered 2026 carrying substantial optimism after openly prioritising the new regulations over last season’s development. The reality has been considerably tougher.
The FW48 has struggled with weight and balance issues, leaving the team lacking the competitiveness many expected after the progress shown under James Vowles. What makes the situation more surprising is that Williams genuinely appeared to be building strong momentum over the past two years.
5. Aston Martin’s Difficult Start
Perhaps the season’s biggest disappointment relative to expectations. With Adrian Newey’s arrival generating enormous excitement, Aston Martin entered 2026 surrounded by optimism. Instead, the AMR26 has struggled with power unit issues, vibrations, balance, consistency, and overall competitiveness, leaving the team fighting much further down the order than anticipated.
Considering the scale of investment and ambition surrounding the project, Aston Martin’s underwhelming start has become one of the defining surprises of the season so far.
